♦️ Layup Lines: Win or go home

Happy Tuesday and welcome back to Layup Lines, your quick recap of what’s going on in the WNBA.

• It’s the last day of September and there’s an elimination Game 5 on TV — we grind through Connecticut vs. Washington in the summer for nights like this.

This 481 word newsletter should take about 2 minutes to read.

🪓 Elimination Tuesday

• Clear the evening schedule and put your favorite drink on ice — we’ve got win-or-go-home basketball featuring the best player in the world (A’ja Wilson) and a scrappy Fever team that’s been decimated by injuries and somehow still standing.

  • Tonight’s game in Vegas starts at 9:30pm ET on ESPN2.

• With officiating still being the dominant conversation coming out of Game 4, expect another physical, intense game featuring both teams running their offenses through the post.

  • Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston will get their points, but if the Aces can slow down the pace and hold Indiana’s role players to low-efficiency shooting nights, they should cruise.

• One X-Factor that isn’t being talked about much is the play of Jewell Loyd, the league’s second-highest paid player at $249k. The Aces traded Kelsey Plum for Loyd in the off-season only to watch the 6x All-Star set near career lows in points and assists while shooting 39% from the floor.

  • She’s been horrible against the Fever (19 total points in four games), so even a tiny spark off the bench could be huge for closing out the series.

• That said, I have been underrating the Fever for months. If they win tonight with most of their backcourt, including Caitlin Clark, injured, it creates maybe the most improbable Finals matchup of all time with Phoenix.

🤑 The gambling angle

• The Aces are eight point favorites at home. In their two wins vs. Indiana in the semis, they’ve won by 12 each time. When Vegas is right, they just have so much more talent than the Fever. So if you like the Aces to win, they will likely cover.

  • If you’re a Fever Believer, +275 to win is nice and moving the line to Indiana -5.5 (+550) is saucy.

• We’re 8-11 in the playoffs and taking:

  • Under 158.5 points scored

  • Vegas -8

🏅 All-Rookie team to go

• For the first time since 2014, the top four picks in the WNBA Draft made the All-Rookie Team.

  • My quibble: Kiki Iriafen had a better offensive season than Saniya Rivers, but the Sun rookie was so impactful on defense that she should’ve made this team. It’s not like team success is a factor — the Mystics were 16-28 and lost 10 straight games to end the season — and Rivers should make one of the All-Defense teams as a rookie.

Layup Lines is written 100% by a human being. I very much appreciate you reading and will see you back here tomorrow.

— Everett Cook, Founder & Editor