Layup Lines: Recovery Sunday

Happy Sunday and welcome back to Layup Lines, your quick recap of what’s going on in the WNBA. I spent the entirety of yesterday sweating and not just because I was in New Orleans in a suit — it was a tough day of picks.

• Lessons learned: Don’t overestimate how long it will take good players to adjust to their new teams. New Liberty guard Natasha Cloud was the main reason the Las Vegas Aces didn’t hit at +4 against New York yesterday, plus the Phoenix Mercury absolutely pummeled the Seattle Storm on the back of 47 combined points from new stars Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally.

  • And even though we hit on the Indiana Fever team over, I spent half of yesterday’s newsletter writing about how good they are, only to get cute on the actual bet. Don’t get cute, friends.

This 472 word newsletter should take less than 2 minutes to read.

Bets of the day

• We are 2-3 this season and have $940 of our initial $1,000 remaining to wager.

• There are two games today — Washington Mystics @ Connecticut Sun (1pm ET) and Minnesota Lynx at Los Angeles Sparks (6pm ET).

  • The Sun and Mystics have a low total of 157.5, which is a reflection of the market not knowing what to do with Connecticut yet. We’ll take the value there. Bet: Over 157.5, $50 to win $46.

  • Napheesa Collier scored 34 points on opening night and the impressive Lynx are still missing second scorer Kayla McBride, so we ride with Phee. Bet: Napheesa Collier 25+ points scored, $50 to win $55.

Take of the day

• When I first started gambling on the WNBA, there was a lot of value in just following travel schedules on social media. Teams were still flying commercial and constantly dealt with delays, so you could just follow players on Instagram to get a pretty clear idea of who wasn’t sleeping the night before a back to back. Easy money on the unders.

• But it became a lot harder to track travel fatigue starting last year, when the league began chartering every flight. It’s great for the athletes and for the on-court product, less great for degenerates. We’ll be monitoring this closely, especially toward the end of the season when teams are playing 44 games for the first time.

Card of the day

I thought Rebecca Lobo did an excellent job on the Fever-Sky broadcast on ESPN yesterday. This is her pretty basic rookie card — a good example of how far the WNBA card market has come along.

Thanks for reading Layup Lines. Your friends / loved ones / neighbors can subscribe here.

If you bet, please do so responsibly, and we will see you back here tomorrow.

— Everett Cook, Founder & Editor