👀 Layup Lines: Biggest game of the year

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Happy Wednesday and welcome back to Layup Lines, your quick recap of what’s going on in the WNBA.

• 🤷 As we hurtle toward the Oct. 31 expiration of the WNBA CBA, NBA commissioner Adam Silver says he’s confident a deal will get done.

This 411 word newsletter should take less than 2 minutes to read.

🌵 Pivotal Game 3

• Phoenix is 1-6 against Las Vegas this season and last won this head-to-head matchup in June — so if there’s any chance of the Mercury keeping their 2025 title hopes alive, they have to win tonight to avoid going down 0-3.

  • Game 3 starts at 8pm ET tonight on ESPN.

• The keys for Phoenix, which shot just 40% from the field and 18% on 3-pointers in Game 2, are making more shots from outside and getting some role players to step up.

  • Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper are largely going to carry the load, but this team needs more from bench players like Sami Whitcomb (2-10 on 3-pointers in the Finals) and DeWanna Bonner (14 points on 5-18 shooting) to be able to keep up with Vegas’ unrelenting offense.

• One issue that could be a factor for the Aces: They’re 1-2 in away games this postseason after finishing the regular season 17-5 at home vs. 13-9 on the road.

  • Phoenix has started both Finals games with big runs only to fade as the Aces find their rhythm. In theory, that’s going to be harder for Vegas to do in front of what should be a raucous road crowd than at home.

• For those looking to wager, we’re 11-14 in the playoffs and taking:

  • Las Vegas +4.5

  • Over 163.5 total points scored

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📊 Chart of the day

• This entire article on playoff risers & fallers from Chris Gunther at Charting Hoops is worth a read, but this chart paints a solid picture of who elevated during the playoffs and why some teams (New York) went home early.

📺 TV ratings to go

• As we keep talking about the new CBA, it’s a big deal that every part of ESPN’s playoff telecasts, including even the pregame show, are up significantly in ratings from last year.

Layup Lines is written 100% by a human being. I very much appreciate you reading and will see you back here tomorrow.

— Everett Cook, Founder & Editor