🎁 Layup Lines: TY, basketball gods

Happy Saturday and welcome back to Layup Lines, your quick recap of what’s going on in the WNBA.

• It’s going to be hot and muggy — the perfect day to hold court at a bar with a couple friends and two of the best teams in the W.

This 598 word newsletter should take a little over 2 minutes to read.

🧨 Biggest game of the month

• In Monday’s newsletter, I mentioned that the Aces had a brutal travel schedule this week and probably needed to go 3-1 against four of the best teams in the league in order to catch the Lynx for the No. 1 overall seed in the WNBA playoffs.

  • Well, Minnesota lost to snap a 10-game win streak, then Las Vegas beat the brakes off Atlanta and overcame a 20-point deficit against Indiana to win in overtime, 86-84.

  • It sets up an incredible Saturday, nationally televised game in Minnesota (1pm ET, CBS). The Aces are now tied with the Valkyries for the second-best record in the league and both are 2.5 games back of the Lynx. Barring an unexpected collapse, it’s likely one of these three teams finishes with the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs.

    • This is a huge spot for Olivia Miles, who has scored 20+ points in three of her last four games and is the kind of player who gets up for big opponents. A’ja Wilson and the defending champs represent that kind of challenge.

  • Las Vegas then has to get back on a plane to play New York tomorrow at 12:30pm on ABC, which feels like you can already mark up as a loss. The Aces should bring it today, though.

• Sunday’s drama includes the Lynx, who also have to play a star-studded team on short rest (Dallas, 3:30pm, NBC), and the Valkyries, who will try to make it 13 wins in their last 15 games (Sparks, 7pm, ESPN).

  • If you’re looking to wager, I like the Aces and Lynx over 181.5 points scored today, and then tomorrow, New York’s moneyline and Golden State -5.5 vs. LA.

    • *I am 19-18 on bets I like this year.

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📬 Reader question of the day

• One of my three preseason bets this year was that the Mercury wouldn’t make the playoffs, so you could see some regression coming — not like this, though. Even after adding Kelsey Plum, Phoenix lost to lowly Connecticut last night and scored just 72 points.

  • The culprits here are losing Satou Sabally to free agency, which ended up being a bigger deal than I think anyone anticipated, and age. Phoenix’s top 3 minutes-earners are all over 30 (Kahleah Copper, 31, Alyssa Thomas, 34, DeWanna Bonner, 38) and the team plays a slow, deliberate style of offense.

  • Plum might speed things up, but it’s a lost season for the Mercury and they are locked in to this roster through 2028, and that’s counting on Plum re-signing. The 2025 Finals run might end up being a blip in history.

• Thanks for the question! Want to join the fun? Just respond to this email and you’ll be in a future edition of Layup Lines.

🎂 Pic to go

• Did I mention the 4x MVP turns 30 today?

Layup Lines is written 100% by a human being. I very much appreciate you reading!

— Everett Cook, Founder & Editor